This phenomenon is known as the optimism bias, and it is one of the most consistent, prevalent, and robust biases documented in psychology and behavioral economics. We also expect to live longer than objective measures would warrant, overestimate our success in the job market, and believe that our children will be especially talented. For example, we underrate our chances of getting divorced, being in a car accident, or suffering from cancer. Humans, however, exhibit a pervasive and surprising bias: when it comes to predicting what will happen to us tomorrow, next week, or fifty years from now, we overestimate the likelihood of positive events, and underestimate the likelihood of negative events. Given the importance of these future projections, one might expect the brain to possess accurate, unbiased foresight. Motivational accounts contend that unrealistic optimism serves a desire to protect and bolster the self (Hoorens 1995 Taylor and Armor 1996). It challenged the traditional idea that accurate perceptions of the self, the. The robustness of unrealistic optimism has spawned numerous explanations, which can be broadly categorized as either motivational or nonmotivational. But, the task never gets done in 10 minutes. You mention I need another 10 minutes to finish a task I’m doing. For example, your friend calls asking if you can meet for lunch.
One of the first psychology papers to explicitly make that case was published in 1988 by Shelley Taylor and Jonathon Brown, under the title Illusion and Well-being. Unrealistic optimism: In the third form of overconfidence, people believe they can complete a task faster than they actually can. The second, egocentrism fallacy describes successful leaders who think. Inferences about what will occur in the future are critical to decision making, enabling us to prepare our actions so as to avoid harm and gain reward. Having a realistic view of the world might be overrated. The first, unrealistic optimism fallacy, occurs when leaders think they are so smart.
The ability to anticipate is a hallmark of cognition.